The Poker Thread

[Psychic]

Sorry, it's 7.5/1 to hit your set on the flop but I figured that would be the main odds to look for as you usually won't see more than the flop with something like 33. In any event I like to look for 9/1 usually anyway due to things like people folding when you make your set, getting outdrawn and stuff like being coolered set over set. Of course you can adjust the odds as appropriate depending on how bad your opponents are and how likely they are to pay off.

I must have miscalculated somewhere. I figured it as you're going to see three cards and there are fifty left, giving you 16.67/1 to flop a set, right? Further research tells me you're right and I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to me .

Might be something to do with the fact that you get 3 chances to hit on the flop, could you be counting it as one? I'm not sure myself to be honest, I'm not really too good at the maths. REX WHY HAS THOU FORSAKEN US!?!

[Oblomov Boblomov]

Sorry, it's 7.5/1 to hit your set on the flop but I figured that would be the main odds to look for as you usually won't see more than the flop with something like 33. In any event I like to look for 9/1 usually anyway due to things like people folding when you make your set, getting outdrawn and stuff like being coolered set over set. Of course you can adjust the odds as appropriate depending on how bad your opponents are and how likely they are to pay off.

I must have miscalculated somewhere. I figured it as you're going to see three cards and there are fifty left, giving you 16.67/1 to flop a set, right? Further research tells me you're right and I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to me .

Might be something to do with the fact that you get 3 chances to hit on the flop, could you be counting it as one? I'm not sure myself to be honest, I'm not really too good at the maths. REX WHY HAS THOU FORSAKEN US!?!

Well I just did 50/1 (surely the odds you would have of making a set if you were shown just one card?) and divided it by three. I'm watching you on the $4.40 by the way; unlucky Drummy on bubbling .

[Psychic]

Final Table now. Let's see how quickly I can get second this time!

[Ecno]

Final Table now. Let's see how quickly I can get second this time!

Am watching.

[Ecno]

Sorry, it's 7.5/1 to hit your set on the flop but I figured that would be the main odds to look for as you usually won't see more than the flop with something like 33. In any event I like to look for 9/1 usually anyway due to things like people folding when you make your set, getting outdrawn and stuff like being coolered set over set. Of course you can adjust the odds as appropriate depending on how bad your opponents are and how likely they are to pay off.

I must have miscalculated somewhere. I figured it as you're going to see three cards and there are fifty left, giving you 16.67/1 to flop a set, right? Further research tells me you're right and I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to me .

Might be something to do with the fact that you get 3 chances to hit on the flop, could you be counting it as one? I'm not sure myself to be honest, I'm not really too good at the maths. REX WHY HAS THOU FORSAKEN US!?!

Well I just did 50/1 (surely the odds you would have of making a set if you were shown just one card?) and divided it by three. I'm watching you on the $4.40 by the way; unlucky Drummy on bubbling .

It's actually 50/2 as there's two of your card left.

[Oblomov Boblomov]

Sorry, it's 7.5/1 to hit your set on the flop but I figured that would be the main odds to look for as you usually won't see more than the flop with something like 33. In any event I like to look for 9/1 usually anyway due to things like people folding when you make your set, getting outdrawn and stuff like being coolered set over set. Of course you can adjust the odds as appropriate depending on how bad your opponents are and how likely they are to pay off.

I must have miscalculated somewhere. I figured it as you're going to see three cards and there are fifty left, giving you 16.67/1 to flop a set, right? Further research tells me you're right and I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to me .

Might be something to do with the fact that you get 3 chances to hit on the flop, could you be counting it as one? I'm not sure myself to be honest, I'm not really too good at the maths. REX WHY HAS THOU FORSAKEN US!?!

Well I just did 50/1 (surely the odds you would have of making a set if you were shown just one card?) and divided it by three. I'm watching you on the $4.40 by the way; unlucky Drummy on bubbling .

It's actually 50/2 as there's two of your card left.

Shiiiiit, of course! Muppet I am .

[satriales]

Sorry, it's 7.5/1 to hit your set on the flop but I figured that would be the main odds to look for as you usually won't see more than the flop with something like 33. In any event I like to look for 9/1 usually anyway due to things like people folding when you make your set, getting outdrawn and stuff like being coolered set over set. Of course you can adjust the odds as appropriate depending on how bad your opponents are and how likely they are to pay off.

I must have miscalculated somewhere. I figured it as you're going to see three cards and there are fifty left, giving you 16.67/1 to flop a set, right? Further research tells me you're right and I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to me .

Might be something to do with the fact that you get 3 chances to hit on the flop, could you be counting it as one? I'm not sure myself to be honest, I'm not really too good at the maths. REX WHY HAS THOU FORSAKEN US!?!

Well I just did 50/1 (surely the odds you would have of making a set if you were shown just one card?) and divided it by three. I'm watching you on the $4.40 by the way; unlucky Drummy on bubbling .

The calculation is:

1 - (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48)
= 11.755102%
= about 7.5-1

[Ecno]

34th just went out in my 6max Tourney on FT.

[satriales]

I decided to play a bit of cash at Full Tilt and I actually did good for once

I was playing 25NL and only 2-tabling as I've been having problems with my internet but I finished my session with $73 profit



Edit: Updated graph as I played for a bit longer and reached $100 profit

[Phatman]

I won £60 last night playing with my friends. Have to admit that I was a jammy sod towards the end. There were three of us left and the blinds were up to such a high figure that when I became big blind it wasn't worth not going all in (especially with pocket kings). I took half of the chip leader's chips on that one hand. On the next hand he went all in, with it turns out pocket aces, and I decide to match him with jack-queen. What comes down on the flop? Two jacks and a queen! The other guy left is now facing an extremely daunting task of whittling me down and on the very next hand decides he'll go all in with queen-jack suited once he sees a jack on the flop. I've got 4-9 and there is 4 down, but it's the weakest potential pair. I decide to chance it anyway and hit a 9 on the river to win. Jammiest game ever.

[Psychic]

Always a skill game when you win.

2/7 atm on Stars.

Couldn't be 1st or 3rd

EDIT: Heads Up now...

Same old story, tourney summary below.

Wait...what?

[satriales]

Well done Sykes, thought you were gonna do it

[Psychic]

I think that's probably the best I've played too. It got shorthanded not long after I took that beat I posted earlier but I managed to stick to my plan of keeping the pots small to exploit position and just picking up a lot of orphan pots. The final table had a good mix of quite tight players and a couple of very laggy guys but I was fortunate to have the most aggressive guy on my right, which let me 3-bet him a few times to chip up. As the table got shorter in numbers I upped my opening range to start hoovering the chips. (Min-raising FTW!) However as we got to 4 handed I tightened up to try and create an image for when it got down to the final two. As it turns out I got hu with the tightest player at the table and apart from a questionable 3-bet with K9s I felt I was in full control throughout. Actually that would apply to the whole tourney really and that's why I'm sitting here with a sense of satisfaction. Thanks for the rail Sat, Ecno and Crimelomov.

Oh and thanks to Drummy as well for playing and staying the hell out of my way when we got drew at the same table.

[satriales]

I just ran so bad in a tournament. First my KK loses to K7 so then I wait for a decent hand and finally get it in with KK again only for it to lose to AK

[Nova]

Well done Sykes!! You can join the winning $4.40 club

[satriales]

I carried on playing cash for a little longer and I know it's a tiny sample but the graph is heading in the right direction for once

[Rex McGee]

It's 10% I use because it's much easier for calculations. 11.76 is the correct % though but that's a shitty number. People also need to be careful with odds. 7.5/1 means you actually flop the set once every 8.5 hands, twice every 17 hands and not every 7.5 hands. People are far more likely to make mistakes with odds rather than fraction/%. For instance:

Pot odds are your basic odds on calling a bet right now based on the current bet to you and the pot size. For instance, if you facing a bet of 100 into a pot of 300, the pot odds are 3 to 1. If you were against this bet on the river and you felt that you were best at least 34% of the time you should call.

Odds are 4/1 since it's your 100 to win 400 + your stake. It's like placing a £100 bet and getting £500 back if you win. You actually only need 20% winrate to make it 0EV since if you played a 4/1 bet 5 times and won once you would lose 4 x £100 on the bad bets and return £500 on the good bet, £100 of which was already yours. So if we are in this spot with 100 to call and run that 5 times, 4 of which we lose and 1 of which we win, our net gain/loss is 0. The important thing to remember is that the money we have already put into the pot is no longer ours, it belongs to the pot. So the 100 the guy has bet no longer belongs to him, the pot is 400 and 100 for us to call.

So if the odds are 3/1 you only need 25%, not 33.3%

So implied odds again. The chance of you flopping your set are "one in 8.5" (7.5/1) ~ 10%. Let's says it's 1 out of 9. This means that 8 of the 9 hands you lose whatever you call (perhaps). The other 1 times you need to make this back up to make the play profitable at least. This is why you can call 10% of the effective stack preflop with a pocket pair since more or less you lose this 90% of the time and lose 90% of your stack worth of chips but the other 10% of the time you are hoping to pretty much stack them. You don't get good implied offs in situations with flushes so much because when you actually hit it's much harder to get pair.

An example where implied odds are useful is a board of AK92 with two of a suit when you have been up against significant aggression preflop. You know they are strong like AK or something and have 45s with the flush draw. The odds for making a call might not be good enoguh since they might be a lot but you have implied odds since if you catch the 3 or card of your suit you feel you might be able to stack them, specially with the 3.

I really wouldn't worry about this too much now though mortal. We will work on more important lessons later.

Well done satriales, play cash and take over the world!

[Psychic]

That's why you're the maths guy and I'm....the other guy.

[Rex McGee]

That's why you're the maths guy and I'm....the other guy.

The car starter.

[Ecno]

I was having a horrible day playing cash untill now (kind of). People were sucking me out everywhere heating all kinds of outers. Then I got pocket kings and got it all in and the other guy had Aces and I was thinking FFS but then I hit a king and won.