Politics Thread 7: Dishy Rishi's Cabinet of Horrors

[Garth]

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1786418511213953167

[Cuttooth]

I think at this point its gotta be said, this isn't really the thumping victory Labour were maybe hoping for regards the seats they are getting. May force a small rethink before an election.

I kind of agree with this. It's really terrible for the Tories but the support for Labour isn't really there.

I don't think that'll matter in getting a huge majority in the general election though. It will once they are actually in government however.

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1786418511213953167

Haha great news. Bradley is such a twat.

[Moggy]

I think at this point its gotta be said, this isn't really the thumping victory Labour were maybe hoping for regards the seats they are getting. May force a small rethink before an election.

I kind of agree with this. It's really terrible for the Tories but the support for Labour isn't really there.

I don't think that'll matter in getting a huge majority in the general election though. It will once they are actually in government however.

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1786418511213953167

Haha great news. Bradley is such a twat.

Hopefully he loses his Westminster seat in a few months.

[Garth]

twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1786434255599423755

[Garth]

twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

[Grumpy David]

twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

This seems too hard to believe even with the electoral system now being FPTP.

And that wouldn't even fully explain it as I think Khan has previously won under 1st preference votes without needing 2nd preference votes and he won when the Tories hadn't totally imploded too.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

Using the latest figures from the local elections, it can be projected that Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament - but falls short of a Commons majority by 32 seats.

After counting more than two million votes cast in the English council elections, a provisional National Share Estimate shows the Conservatives on just 26% of the vote, a 19-point drop compared with the 2019 general election and one of its worst ever performances in any set of local elections.

Labour's vote rises from 33% in 2019 to 35% on the current estimate, after more than half the wards have now declared.

This is very surprising, but potentially it shows that Tory collapse isn't coinciding with strong enthusiasm for Labour.

[Knoyleo]

Wonder what the Labour to Binface swing will be?

[Moggy]

[Carlos]

And they’re too dense to realise that the further right they go, the further they fall in the polls.

Their answer to the local drumming will be to enact some emergency right wing policies.

[Garth]

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

Using the latest figures from the local elections, it can be projected that Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament - but falls short of a Commons majority by 32 seats.

After counting more than two million votes cast in the English council elections, a provisional National Share Estimate shows the Conservatives on just 26% of the vote, a 19-point drop compared with the 2019 general election and one of its worst ever performances in any set of local elections.

Labour's vote rises from 33% in 2019 to 35% on the current estimate, after more than half the wards have now declared.

This is very surprising, but potentially it shows that Tory collapse isn't coinciding with strong enthusiasm for Labour.

It's not a great article as for example they assume Labour will make no seat gains in Scotland compared to the last election (which is very unrealistic considering the state of the Scottish Tories and the SNPs problems lately), and we know from previous elections that a significant number of people vote on local issues in local elections - voting in many cases for parties and independents they wouldn't vote for in a general election, and voter turnout is higher in general elections too.

Labour does reportedly need a bigger swing from the Tories in the next general election (12.7% swing) than Blair's historic win in 1997 (10.2% swing) to achieve an overall majority though: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britai ... 024-01-16/

[Moggy]

John Major did very well in the 1997 local elections. I wonder how he did in the general election.

[Rex Kramer]

And Caroline Henry lost as well.

Glorious day for Nottinghamshire.

[Cyburn2]

Reform get 2 seats in Havant Council (out of 36 seats)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/england/councils/E07000090

[Garth]

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1786483172957442336

[Garth]

twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1786483166921863212

[Dowbocop]

Barnet and Camden - 39.59%
Bexley and Bromley - 48.38%
Brent and Harrow - 37.09%
City and East (Barking and Dagenham, City of London, Newham, Tower Hamlets) - 31.17%
Croydon and Sutton - 42.27%
Ealing and Hillingdon - 42.98%
Enfield and Haringey - 41.38%
Greenwich and Lewisham - 40.33%
Havering and Redbridge - 42.94%
Lambeth and Southwark - 39.13%
Merton and Wandsworth - 45.99%
North East (Hackney, Islington, Waltham Forest) - 39.57%
South West (Hounslow, Kingston Upon Thames, Richmond Upon Thames) - 45.26%
West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster) - 34.98%

Can't say I've gone over a map with a fine tooth comb, but it looks like turnout was significantly higher in the outer London areas where all the ULEZ kerfuffle was most incendiary. This could explain why Labour aren't so confident. It'd be a travesty if Susan Hall got in, she's a strawberry floating embarrassment.

[Moggy]

Barnet and Camden - 39.59%
Bexley and Bromley - 48.38%
Brent and Harrow - 37.09%
City and East (Barking and Dagenham, City of London, Newham, Tower Hamlets) - 31.17%
Croydon and Sutton - 42.27%
Ealing and Hillingdon - 42.98%
Enfield and Haringey - 41.38%
Greenwich and Lewisham - 40.33%
Havering and Redbridge - 42.94%
Lambeth and Southwark - 39.13%
Merton and Wandsworth - 45.99%
North East (Hackney, Islington, Waltham Forest) - 39.57%
South West (Hounslow, Kingston Upon Thames, Richmond Upon Thames) - 45.26%
West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster) - 34.98%

Can't say I've gone over a map with a fine tooth comb, but it looks like turnout was significantly higher in the outer London areas where all the ULEZ kerfuffle was most incendiary. This could explain why Labour aren't so confident. It'd be a travesty if Susan Hall got in, she's a strawberry floating embarrassment.

Voter turnout was 40.5% in the London mayoral election
....

Previously, voter turnout was 42% in 2021, 46% in 2016, 38% in 2012, 45% in 2008, 37% in 2004 and 34% in 2000.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... 953047.amp

The turnout isn't really low compared to previous London mayoral elections.

[Dowbocop]

Barnet and Camden - 39.59%
Bexley and Bromley - 48.38%
Brent and Harrow - 37.09%
City and East (Barking and Dagenham, City of London, Newham, Tower Hamlets) - 31.17%
Croydon and Sutton - 42.27%
Ealing and Hillingdon - 42.98%
Enfield and Haringey - 41.38%
Greenwich and Lewisham - 40.33%
Havering and Redbridge - 42.94%
Lambeth and Southwark - 39.13%
Merton and Wandsworth - 45.99%
North East (Hackney, Islington, Waltham Forest) - 39.57%
South West (Hounslow, Kingston Upon Thames, Richmond Upon Thames) - 45.26%
West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster) - 34.98%

Can't say I've gone over a map with a fine tooth comb, but it looks like turnout was significantly higher in the outer London areas where all the ULEZ kerfuffle was most incendiary. This could explain why Labour aren't so confident. It'd be a travesty if Susan Hall got in, she's a strawberry floating embarrassment.

Voter turnout was 40.5% in the London mayoral election
....

Previously, voter turnout was 42% in 2021, 46% in 2016, 38% in 2012, 45% in 2008, 37% in 2004 and 34% in 2000.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... 953047.amp

The turnout isn't really low compared to previous London mayoral elections.

My point is it's low in the areas that are potentially less bothered about ULEZ and higher in the areas that are.

[Moggy]

Barnet and Camden - 39.59%
Bexley and Bromley - 48.38%
Brent and Harrow - 37.09%
City and East (Barking and Dagenham, City of London, Newham, Tower Hamlets) - 31.17%
Croydon and Sutton - 42.27%
Ealing and Hillingdon - 42.98%
Enfield and Haringey - 41.38%
Greenwich and Lewisham - 40.33%
Havering and Redbridge - 42.94%
Lambeth and Southwark - 39.13%
Merton and Wandsworth - 45.99%
North East (Hackney, Islington, Waltham Forest) - 39.57%
South West (Hounslow, Kingston Upon Thames, Richmond Upon Thames) - 45.26%
West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster) - 34.98%

Can't say I've gone over a map with a fine tooth comb, but it looks like turnout was significantly higher in the outer London areas where all the ULEZ kerfuffle was most incendiary. This could explain why Labour aren't so confident. It'd be a travesty if Susan Hall got in, she's a strawberry floating embarrassment.

Voter turnout was 40.5% in the London mayoral election
....

Previously, voter turnout was 42% in 2021, 46% in 2016, 38% in 2012, 45% in 2008, 37% in 2004 and 34% in 2000.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... 953047.amp

The turnout isn't really low compared to previous London mayoral elections.

My point is it's low in the areas that are potentially less bothered about ULEZ and higher in the areas that are.

We'll see tomorrow, I just find it unbelievable that anybody could vote for that fuckwit, let enough enough people that she could win.

[Return_of_the_STAR]

They are some fairly decent turnouts for London mayor. I guess though considering how important of a job it is there it should be taken very seriously.

Also my local PCC election went the way I expected. Low turnout at 19% and elected a career politician with absolutely no links to policing or the fire service (our county is an OFPCC). Who from personal experience will be absolutely awful in the role. Whilst a perfectly good candidate finished third because she was lib dem. I really wish political parties were not allowed to field candidates for the PCC role.