Re: ***Offical Poker Thread***
Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2009 9:02 pm
Where'd you finish Nova?
PsychicSykes wrote:Where'd you finish Nova?
PsychicSykes wrote:Rex McGee wrote:You had 33, not 44.
Pot was 150 blinds + your 150 raise. I make it 450 with about another 500-550 behind. I think you have about 3000-3500 chips. I just think it's a fold because your stack drops to 2k from 3k if you lose and I won't put in half my stack to fold a shove, so evidently my raise is to get all in regardless. I think you can fold and lose 150 but fair play, you won the hand I guess. +/- EV isn't what SnG are about either. Your tournament equity is far more important. If say you are 60% but yopur equity would stand to drop so low you would never be making the call. It's why you raise less as well in SnG. 3BB is like a tops preflop and it decreases as the tournament progress.
Pot is 700 (150 Blinds+150 Raise+400 3bet) and you have 550 behind. To put you AI will cost me 800 more for a shot at a 2050 pot. (700 pot+550 behind+800 cost) Flat calling is out of the question as you're going AI on any flop, while I'm getting extremely good odds. Assuming my maths isn't screwed up, I have the feeling it may be, with those odds, the only way I can fold is if I'm sure you have a higher pair than me.
Rex McGee wrote:PsychicSykes wrote:Rex McGee wrote:You had 33, not 44.
Pot was 150 blinds + your 150 raise. I make it 450 with about another 500-550 behind. I think you have about 3000-3500 chips. I just think it's a fold because your stack drops to 2k from 3k if you lose and I won't put in half my stack to fold a shove, so evidently my raise is to get all in regardless. I think you can fold and lose 150 but fair play, you won the hand I guess. +/- EV isn't what SnG are about either. Your tournament equity is far more important. If say you are 60% but yopur equity would stand to drop so low you would never be making the call. It's why you raise less as well in SnG. 3BB is like a tops preflop and it decreases as the tournament progress.
Pot is 700 (150 Blinds+150 Raise+400 3bet) and you have 550 behind. To put you AI will cost me 800 more for a shot at a 2050 pot. (700 pot+550 behind+800 cost) Flat calling is out of the question as you're going AI on any flop, while I'm getting extremely good odds. Assuming my maths isn't screwed up, I have the feeling it may be, with those odds, the only way I can fold is if I'm sure you have a higher pair than me.
Pot is incorrect as I am in the blind AND blinds are 25/50, I counted 150 for some known reason.
I have 950 so plus the BB it's 1k for 800 to call OR fold 150. So you are looking at more or less 1/1 in which case you have to be sure you are ahead 50% of the time to be +EV. If this is cash and we are even stacked you are not ahead of me anywhere near 50% of the time because 44+ makes up so much of my range. The fact it is a tournament and my life matters and not EV then you are even further behind since my range narrows. Especially since my raise implies and all in, it's clearly beating 33 more than 50% of the time. Look up ICM calculations, especially if you are intending to play SNG more. Your equity in a tournament is important and not if you are +EV or not (you weren't anyway but that's besides the point.) For example if you are 51% favourite in cash you should always call. Clearly this is different for a tournament no? What matters is stack sizes, blinds size, number of players left etc etc etc.
PsychicSykes wrote:Rex McGee wrote:PsychicSykes wrote:Rex McGee wrote:You had 33, not 44.
Pot was 150 blinds + your 150 raise. I make it 450 with about another 500-550 behind. I think you have about 3000-3500 chips. I just think it's a fold because your stack drops to 2k from 3k if you lose and I won't put in half my stack to fold a shove, so evidently my raise is to get all in regardless. I think you can fold and lose 150 but fair play, you won the hand I guess. +/- EV isn't what SnG are about either. Your tournament equity is far more important. If say you are 60% but yopur equity would stand to drop so low you would never be making the call. It's why you raise less as well in SnG. 3BB is like a tops preflop and it decreases as the tournament progress.
Pot is 700 (150 Blinds+150 Raise+400 3bet) and you have 550 behind. To put you AI will cost me 800 more for a shot at a 2050 pot. (700 pot+550 behind+800 cost) Flat calling is out of the question as you're going AI on any flop, while I'm getting extremely good odds. Assuming my maths isn't screwed up, I have the feeling it may be, with those odds, the only way I can fold is if I'm sure you have a higher pair than me.
Pot is incorrect as I am in the blind AND blinds are 25/50, I counted 150 for some known reason.
I have 950 so plus the BB it's 1k for 800 to call OR fold 150. So you are looking at more or less 1/1 in which case you have to be sure you are ahead 50% of the time to be +EV. If this is cash and we are even stacked you are not ahead of me anywhere near 50% of the time because 44+ makes up so much of my range. The fact it is a tournament and my life matters and not EV then you are even further behind since my range narrows. Especially since my raise implies and all in, it's clearly beating 33 more than 50% of the time. Look up ICM calculations, especially if you are intending to play SNG more. Your equity in a tournament is important and not if you are +EV or not (you weren't anyway but that's besides the point.) For example if you are 51% favourite in cash you should always call. Clearly this is different for a tournament no? What matters is stack sizes, blinds size, number of players left etc etc etc.
Firstly, my sums were wrong in the previous post. Blinds are 75 total, I raise 150, you raise 400 (Raise more BTW!) and you have 800 behind so it's 1425 in the pot if I put you all in, right? Now here's the key part, what hands are you actually raising me with there?
Nova wrote:Boys, I've found my calling in poker - short stacked tourney play. Just finished 7th in a 2$ tourney, netting $273 ish.
I'll talk about it tomorrow, need sleep.
Rex McGee wrote:So quite how you think you are + EV is a mystery.
Rex McGee wrote:So from your view the pot is 50 (blinds) + 150 (your raise) + 400 (my 3bet). I have 550 back. If you decide to play me all in (which I will never be folding obviously) then the pot will be 950 (my stack)* 2 + 50 (blind) = 1950, 950 of which is yours i.e. 1/1. EVENS. This is mathematical fact and nothing that can be disputed. I won't repeat the rest because I may as well just quote my post but essentially this means you need to be 50% sure you are beating my range to be +EV, which, you are not. Secondly, being +EV does not justify a call due to your tournament equity. Once again not going to explain but this swings it massively in my favour as my range narrows.
PsychicSykes wrote:I thought you'd be 3 betting me lighter as I was habitually stealing from the button in all four of the games. Had I known you didn't take that into consideration, I would have put the hand down. My bad, I just leveled myself.
Could you elaborate on this please? Is that referring to Independent Chip Modelling?