The Poker Thread

Where'd you finish Nova?

PsychicSykes wrote:Where'd you finish Nova?

He finished something like 116th. Didn't catch any of the pre-flop action but the board was JTT. Nova ends up all in with KJ against some guy's KK. He had straight outs on the river but unfortunately the railfest ended there.

As for me, I'm now 3/3 in Nova's $3 SnG games. After that hand I lost 1/3 of my stack after a guy slow played a set and I got carried away with my top pair top kicker. I admittedly made a mistake when I called his raise on the river, with two sevens on the board.

Later on I got Kings and raised the same guy's BB. He calls. board is 732, can't put him on either of those but he called my raise with 32 and I of course stack off. He was starting to piss me off and I was back to starting stack. I picked up sixes, a guy raised for over a third of my stack, so I pushed. He calls with KJ, completely overplaying his hand. All low cards came and I was up to 3k. I then pick up TT. I call a raise from the short stack who has half my stack, flop comes 223. He bets and I come in over the top. Can't remember what he had, AJ I think, and he missed. The guy who almost tilted me knocks the last guy out and we're HU.

Didn't really want to be against this guy as he tends to slow play everything, ended up overcoming his lead and for once he didn't suck out on me when I got him all in way out in front.

Well played Drummy!

Yeah Sykes, I needed to double up, so with Jacks up at the flop I thought that was the best time. The guy who called me was a massive big stack so I figured he would call me on lower anyway, but nevermind.

Sick

My luck is changing, and my bankroll is slowly increasing. However I keep getting myself into these kind of situations. Why couldn't an Ace or a King come on the flop !

Lonestar, dismiss all thoughts of luck this instance. The more you think of the concept of luck as having a large affect on whether you win or not, the more you'll end up tilting yourself. Play each hand the best you possibly can and let the cards take care of themselves. In the long run if you play well, you'll win, regardless of this "luck."

I'm on now if anybody want's to spec.

If I would have needed the queen it never would have came !

PsychicSykes wrote:

Rex McGee wrote:You had 33, not 44.

Pot was 150 blinds + your 150 raise. I make it 450 with about another 500-550 behind. I think you have about 3000-3500 chips. I just think it's a fold because your stack drops to 2k from 3k if you lose and I won't put in half my stack to fold a shove, so evidently my raise is to get all in regardless. I think you can fold and lose 150 but fair play, you won the hand I guess. +/- EV isn't what SnG are about either. Your tournament equity is far more important. If say you are 60% but yopur equity would stand to drop so low you would never be making the call. It's why you raise less as well in SnG. 3BB is like a tops preflop and it decreases as the tournament progress.

Pot is 700 (150 Blinds+150 Raise+400 3bet) and you have 550 behind. To put you AI will cost me 800 more for a shot at a 2050 pot. (700 pot+550 behind+800 cost) Flat calling is out of the question as you're going AI on any flop, while I'm getting extremely good odds. Assuming my maths isn't screwed up, I have the feeling it may be, with those odds, the only way I can fold is if I'm sure you have a higher pair than me.

Pot is incorrect as I am in the blind AND blinds are 25/50, I counted 150 for some known reason.

I have 950 so plus the BB it's 1k for 800 to call OR fold 150. So you are looking at more or less 1/1 in which case you have to be sure you are ahead 50% of the time to be +EV. If this is cash and we are even stacked you are not ahead of me anywhere near 50% of the time because 44+ makes up so much of my range. The fact it is a tournament and my life matters and not EV then you are even further behind since my range narrows. Especially since my raise implies and all in, it's clearly beating 33 more than 50% of the time. Look up ICM calculations, especially if you are intending to play SNG more. Your equity in a tournament is important and not if you are +EV or not (you weren't anyway but that's besides the point.) For example if you are 51% favourite in cash you should always call. Clearly this is different for a tournament no? What matters is stack sizes, blinds size, number of players left etc etc etc.

Played at poker soc today. Got bored and jammed gunshot at flop vs megafish. Went out and make £20 playing cash. Standard poker soc!

Rex McGee wrote:

PsychicSykes wrote:

Rex McGee wrote:You had 33, not 44.

Pot was 150 blinds + your 150 raise. I make it 450 with about another 500-550 behind. I think you have about 3000-3500 chips. I just think it's a fold because your stack drops to 2k from 3k if you lose and I won't put in half my stack to fold a shove, so evidently my raise is to get all in regardless. I think you can fold and lose 150 but fair play, you won the hand I guess. +/- EV isn't what SnG are about either. Your tournament equity is far more important. If say you are 60% but yopur equity would stand to drop so low you would never be making the call. It's why you raise less as well in SnG. 3BB is like a tops preflop and it decreases as the tournament progress.

Pot is 700 (150 Blinds+150 Raise+400 3bet) and you have 550 behind. To put you AI will cost me 800 more for a shot at a 2050 pot. (700 pot+550 behind+800 cost) Flat calling is out of the question as you're going AI on any flop, while I'm getting extremely good odds. Assuming my maths isn't screwed up, I have the feeling it may be, with those odds, the only way I can fold is if I'm sure you have a higher pair than me.

Pot is incorrect as I am in the blind AND blinds are 25/50, I counted 150 for some known reason.

I have 950 so plus the BB it's 1k for 800 to call OR fold 150. So you are looking at more or less 1/1 in which case you have to be sure you are ahead 50% of the time to be +EV. If this is cash and we are even stacked you are not ahead of me anywhere near 50% of the time because 44+ makes up so much of my range. The fact it is a tournament and my life matters and not EV then you are even further behind since my range narrows. Especially since my raise implies and all in, it's clearly beating 33 more than 50% of the time. Look up ICM calculations, especially if you are intending to play SNG more. Your equity in a tournament is important and not if you are +EV or not (you weren't anyway but that's besides the point.) For example if you are 51% favourite in cash you should always call. Clearly this is different for a tournament no? What matters is stack sizes, blinds size, number of players left etc etc etc.

Firstly, my sums were wrong in the previous post. Blinds are 75 total, I raise 150, you raise 400 (Raise more BTW!) and you have 800 behind so it's 1425 in the pot if I put you all in, right? Now here's the key part, what hands are you actually raising me with there?

Well, I think I'm a pretty good tournament player. Just finished a 1$ tourney and of 1061, I finished 6th, netting about 40$

I was short stack pretty much throughout the tourney but was so patient and picked my opportunities when they came. I got a little luck just as much as I got bad beats but I never risked all my chips on anything less than 60/40.

My only mistake, in my opinion, was going all in with my short stack with K8 suited. I only say that because the other chap, who had been very tight up until now, had gone all in before me.

Sure enough, he had AQ and his his ace at the flop, and that was me. I definately think I can cash a few tourney's though

I'd played perfect poker up until then, and that's my reward

PsychicSykes wrote:

Rex McGee wrote:

PsychicSykes wrote:

Rex McGee wrote:You had 33, not 44.

Pot was 150 blinds + your 150 raise. I make it 450 with about another 500-550 behind. I think you have about 3000-3500 chips. I just think it's a fold because your stack drops to 2k from 3k if you lose and I won't put in half my stack to fold a shove, so evidently my raise is to get all in regardless. I think you can fold and lose 150 but fair play, you won the hand I guess. +/- EV isn't what SnG are about either. Your tournament equity is far more important. If say you are 60% but yopur equity would stand to drop so low you would never be making the call. It's why you raise less as well in SnG. 3BB is like a tops preflop and it decreases as the tournament progress.

Pot is 700 (150 Blinds+150 Raise+400 3bet) and you have 550 behind. To put you AI will cost me 800 more for a shot at a 2050 pot. (700 pot+550 behind+800 cost) Flat calling is out of the question as you're going AI on any flop, while I'm getting extremely good odds. Assuming my maths isn't screwed up, I have the feeling it may be, with those odds, the only way I can fold is if I'm sure you have a higher pair than me.

Pot is incorrect as I am in the blind AND blinds are 25/50, I counted 150 for some known reason.

I have 950 so plus the BB it's 1k for 800 to call OR fold 150. So you are looking at more or less 1/1 in which case you have to be sure you are ahead 50% of the time to be +EV. If this is cash and we are even stacked you are not ahead of me anywhere near 50% of the time because 44+ makes up so much of my range. The fact it is a tournament and my life matters and not EV then you are even further behind since my range narrows. Especially since my raise implies and all in, it's clearly beating 33 more than 50% of the time. Look up ICM calculations, especially if you are intending to play SNG more. Your equity in a tournament is important and not if you are +EV or not (you weren't anyway but that's besides the point.) For example if you are 51% favourite in cash you should always call. Clearly this is different for a tournament no? What matters is stack sizes, blinds size, number of players left etc etc etc.

Firstly, my sums were wrong in the previous post. Blinds are 75 total, I raise 150, you raise 400 (Raise more BTW!) and you have 800 behind so it's 1425 in the pot if I put you all in, right? Now here's the key part, what hands are you actually raising me with there?

Uh. I really don't think you seem to understand at all

My last post is completely correct number wise, as is this one.

I was in the small blind, you were on the button.

You raise to 150, I make it 400 (no, not raise more, the raise is perfectly fine. Once again, tournament equity matter, raising 3x + 1 is perfectly normal and in fact the sort of top of the range. Clearly I intend to get all in irrespective so it doesn't matter. I'm not sure if you are aware but I do know quite a lot of tournament strategy despite playing cash where as you don't seem to understand the word equity at all.)

So from your view the pot is 50 (blinds) + 150 (your raise) + 400 (my 3bet). I have 550 back. If you decide to play me all in (which I will never be folding obviously) then the pot will be 950 (my stack)* 2 + 50 (blind) = 1950, 950 of which is yours i.e. 1/1. EVENS. This is mathematical fact and nothing that can be disputed. I won't repeat the rest because I may as well just quote my post but essentially this means you need to be 50% sure you are beating my range to be +EV, which, you are not. Secondly, being +EV does not justify a call due to your tournament equity. Once again not going to explain but this swings it massively in my favour as my range narrows.

If you cannot make sense of this then you are going to be playing $6 SnG for quite some time....

As for your question. The hands I am doing that with dominate 33 obviously. If you like I can put my ranges into pokerstove and you show your EV.

Tell me your range then.

Ok, here's your EV calculations to hopefully make you realise how far behind my range you are. It would be interesting to see what you think my range would be because I'd bet you'd think narrower than this:

Let's start with something quite narrow, but still wider than what I would be all in with:

33 vs 22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Has 33 @ 42.5%

Let's open up the range to include ALL aces and a load more card cominations including 9s.

33 vs 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

Has 33 @ 47.5%

Let's go crazy and include any King, Queen and more combos with 7's and 8's.

33 vs 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o

Has 33 @ 50.4%

Just for fun, if I include every possible hand:

33 vs random hand

Has 33 @ 53.6%

So quite how you think you are + EV is a mystery.

Oh and my actual range is more like:

66+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo which has you way down at 35%.

Boys, I've found my calling in poker - short stacked tourney play. Just finished 7th in a 2$ tourney, netting $273 ish.

I'll talk about it tomorrow, need sleep.

Nova wrote:Boys, I've found my calling in poker - short stacked tourney play. Just finished 7th in a 2$ tourney, netting $273 ish.

I'll talk about it tomorrow, need sleep.

Nice work

Rex McGee wrote:So quite how you think you are + EV is a mystery.

I thought you'd be 3 betting me lighter as I was habitually stealing from the button in all four of the games. Had I known you didn't take that into consideration, I would have put the hand down. My bad, I just leveled myself.

Rex McGee wrote:So from your view the pot is 50 (blinds) + 150 (your raise) + 400 (my 3bet). I have 550 back. If you decide to play me all in (which I will never be folding obviously) then the pot will be 950 (my stack)* 2 + 50 (blind) = 1950, 950 of which is yours i.e. 1/1. EVENS. This is mathematical fact and nothing that can be disputed. I won't repeat the rest because I may as well just quote my post but essentially this means you need to be 50% sure you are beating my range to be +EV, which, you are not. Secondly, being +EV does not justify a call due to your tournament equity. Once again not going to explain but this swings it massively in my favour as my range narrows.

Could you elaborate on this please? Is that referring to Independent Chip Modelling?

Oh, Congrats Nova!

Firstly strawberry floating congrats Nova for mega roll boost! Don't get carried away though, few people make it into big monies with enough of an edge in tournaments and variance is HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE so you may not cash for like 30 tournaments of such a size. Don't get carried away and think you are some sort of poker god because when you get sucked out on again and again it's gonna suck! GG though, very impressive. Made almost as much as me this month now

PsychicSykes wrote:I thought you'd be 3 betting me lighter as I was habitually stealing from the button in all four of the games. Had I known you didn't take that into consideration, I would have put the hand down. My bad, I just leveled myself.

Could you elaborate on this please? Is that referring to Independent Chip Modelling?

Did you not say earlier that I was basically pot committing myself preflop? Surely this makes it clear I want all in preflop/flop and in which case I am probably not trying to resteal light?

I'm not annoyed at losing the hand at all, I can deal with 20+ buyin cash downers so I can cope with flipping out of a play money matrix but I am nost concerned that you understand the reasoning and hopefully don't make the same error again. Discussion here will surely help people improve? From what I have seen you are one of the best players here since you never seem to show bad results but I think the error is quite funadmental. When you shove I have to call but I expected to be way behind. Was chatting to Drum on TS as well and I think he was equally confused @ 33.

I think you need to consider what I make that move with that you beat. The only hand is 22. You flip lots of times, are just behind many suited connectors (that I won't make the move with anyway) and miles behind 44+.

Ergh I can attempt to explain what I mean. I assumed you were quite familiar with exactly what is meant by EV but if you like I will just go through it quickly and explain the difference between cash and tournament play. EV is your expected value. Yoy essentially calculate your win percentage and compare it to pot size in order to make a decision. The problem comes when you are not aware of their hand though so you have to make guesses based on stats and attempt to make only + EV calls.

Looking at things from a cash game perspective, if you are ever +EV, that is you make profit against their range in the long run you should always be calling, no matter how small of a favourite you might be. If we are talking preflop all in then you need to be ahead of 50% of their shoving range. This is where stats because important. Since there is such a variation in play I will snap fold my AK vs a mega nit preflop but snap call against a donk. This is because their start including AQ, AJ, AT etc in their shoving range and perhaps worse like KQ so I end up +EV. Of course you might need to take into account players acting after you but strictly 1v1 you need to be ahead 50% of the time if it is an open shove. As soon as their is a pot though, calculations because more complex. Let's assume we are at the turn then and the pot is $30, 15 from each of you. The other guy is all in for another $30 and you have him covered. The pot is now $60 so to make your $30 call you will get 2/1 on your money. In this situation you only need to be 33% sure of winning the hand to make the call. This can start getting complicated and you won't be able to make the calculations before the timer runs down. Perhaps the board has a flush draw, you need to consider if he made this on the turn, will he push it, what are the chances of him making the flush if so. It gets quite complicated! The same applies for preflop is there are raises, 3bets etc, you need to factor in the money you have raised which is no longer "yours", it's the pots.

So in our example it isn't QUITE 1/1 since you have 150 in the pot but that's small scale compared to the 1k that is going to be in from each of us, almost inevitably once we hit the flop. So hopefully you understand EV now if you didn't already >_>

I will say not download pokerstove. It's free and easy to use and calculates EV of known hands against ranges.

So once again, if it is cash and you are +EV then you always make the call. +EV refers to you being ahead more than your required % to make the call so in the example anything above 33% is a +EV call since it makes you moneys in the long run. Tournaments are very very different. Hopefully it is evident that making small +EV calls is not exactly great because you are basically going to be flipping your way through the tournament. Congrats if you can flip your way to the final table but judging by the amount of flips you would have to win to make the final table this could get quite sticky! The idea is that in cash you will make the money back in the long run but in a tournament you need to build up your stack and once you are out you are done.

Obviously you want to be ahead when you are all in but you don't want to be flipping for your stack. You already know what ICM is then so either read up on it or refresh yourself. It doesn't matter too much at low stakes since ranges are strawberry floating massive and it's quite easy to beat but consider it. I am not going to explain because I will make an error and online pages do it so much better. Essentially though your stack size, the number of players left and payouts are taken into account rather than if you are +EV or not. Just as a small example. You had 3k in our hand, I had 1k. If I win the hand I double up and we both have 2k. Is it not obvious that this is a massive gain in tournament equity for me and an equal drop for you. The result would be we are in the same position. Do you really want to be flipping for that situation? I certainly wouldn't.

I hope that makes sense now but I don't play SnG or tournaments anymore unless live because I am so much more suited to cash play so you are *probably* much better than me at judgements anyway when it comes to making it before the timer runs out but afterwards I have sufficient knowledge to work out that I was usually making a bad play! Also if you grind SnG take a look at Nash equilibrium for shoving ranges, really useful though I never go far enough up to consider using it.

Once again, bloody good job Nova. GOnna play some $50NL cash once again for a few hours today. GL all.

It was marginal, but I was willing to take that due to the nature of the Matrix scoring system and the fact I wanted to get rid of you from my left. It's probably because I generally play cash that I made the call, as I'm generally playing against the brightest bunch. Loved reading your reasoning, thanks for taking the time to explain yourself.

Now, I won't be playing tonight as I started to feel the signs of tilt after I was the bubble boy four times in a row. Here's my favourite.

Villain is 47/23/2.4 over 40 odd hands.

Oh wow that's pretty gooseberry fool! That's why I hate tournaments so much. If that happened in cash, obviously it's a good sign for both but I would make some sweet notes and stick with him for moneys but you are out now and not likely to meet them again.

I still don't think it's marginal in terms of ICM, it is in terms of EV (well, almost ). Yeah hopefully it helps anyway. 33 is poo! You cannot really hit any flop unless it has a 3 you know?

Anyway. About to sit down now if anyone is interested. I thought I would also make a suggestion to Nova with regard to bankroll because I am sure he is going to ask what to do now. IMO, (which may not be correct of course) carry on playing cheap tournaments and hope you keep hitting the big wins. Certainly don't play anything over $10 as the money will trickle away. I think $5 and below is fine. I would say if you are going to play some SnG then move up to $5/$6 as you are overrolled for it now BUT you may not have the experience to play any higher and again, variance is a horrible word. I don't want to see you get carried away and go busto. Good luck!