Cuttooth wrote:~Earl Grey~ wrote:satriales wrote:What these new tricks which we haven't even seen yet?
The only certainty is that Derren Brown can't predict the lottery. He is not psychic and the lottery is completely random so there is no way to predict it. Without seeing the show it is impossible to say how he will do it.
If he literally just goes on air 10 minutes before the lottery starts and reads out his predictions, and it is confirmed that the lottery draw is recorded after his predictions were made, then I will be extremely impressed. I don't think his show will be as simple as that and so these extra variables will be the key to how the trick is done.
The lottery is actually governed by highly non-linear, chaotic - but technically deterministic - dynamics. It's not random.
Can you elaborate?
If every single variable was exactly the same, then you could theoretically get the balls to do the exact same sequence and come out in the same order. But by every variable I mean every single thing right down to the atomic level would have to be the same. The laws of motion are pretty simple and deterministic, after all - but when you have a complex system of things that all affect one another things get unpredictable.
Imagine if in the draw, the 15 missed the 8 by a millimetre and continued along its path into another ball (let's say the 24), causing that to bounce into the 11, causing that to bounce into the 6, causing the 6 to fall out of the hole.
If the initial ball (15) was off by 1mm (from in the above scenario), then it would hit the 8 - so it wouldn't hit the 24 (as the 8 would knock it off its course with it), the 24 would not hit the 11, etc.
But the system would be so sensitive, a difference of a micrometer would eventually have significant ramifications so as to completely alter the draw result.
It's the Butterfly Effect.